If the Strait of Hormuz doesn't open soon, as seems likely, there will be a massive economic crash

[LymphocyteLover]

From "The Other 98%" on FB:

"If the Strait of Hormuz never reopens, the life you know starts coming apart by this fall. An actual apocalypse. Not as a metaphor. As a supply chain. And nobody in the media will walk you through what that actually looks like.
So let’s walk you through it.

For three months, a fifth of the world's oil has been cut off. You haven't felt the full weight of it yet, and there's a reason for that. The world had a cushion. Enormous reserves of oil sitting in storage, built up over years.

We've been burning through that cushion to keep the gas flowing and the prices from exploding. Quietly. Fast. At a pace never seen outside a global pandemic.

Here's the part the optimists keep skipping: a cushion is not a faucet. It runs out. And when you are near the bottom, you don't get a gentle warning. You lose the pressure that keeps fuel moving to every station, every truck, every farm, all at once.

The experts who war-game this for a living have a name for that moment. The operational floor. And the worst-case estimates put it around this fall.

Now picture it. The strait stays shut. The reserves hit empty. And the thing that's been hiding this crisis simply vanishes.

Diesel goes first, and diesel is what moves the world. The trucks that restock your grocery store. The trains. The cargo ships. The combines that bring in the harvest.

Translation, the supply chains we depend on to get our food and medicines disappear.

Food doesn't disappear because we stopped growing it. It disappears because nothing can afford to move it, and because fertilizer is made from natural gas, so the next harvest costs a fortune before it's even planted.

Translation. Grocery stores are closed. People will starve.

Factories across Europe and Asia go dark. Entire countries that import every drop they burn get crushed first. And oil itself blows past every record in human history, into numbers with no modern precedent, because the whole planet is fighting over a fraction of what it needs.

That is not a gas-price story. That is the machinery of modern civilization losing pressure everywhere, simultaneously.

And this isn't a fringe nightmare. The Atlantic Council says strategic reserves are "no match for massive, sustained production outages," and calls this disruption "without precedent."

And the oil shock is only the first domino. Modern economies run on cheap, predictable energy the way a body runs on oxygen, and when you choke it off everywhere at once, everything downstream seizes.

Translation. Worldwide economic collapse. The Great Depression on steroids (and we will beg for the days of the 2008 recession)

The scariest part isn't that this scenario exists. It's that the people who could stop it keep insisting everything is fine. The Treasury Secretary swears gas will be cheaper by the midterms. The reserves keep falling anyway.

This is the bill a war of choice put on the table. And the men who put it there are governing like it can't come due.

The cushion is almost gone, and the silence is the scariest part."

Even if this is exaggerated, there's little doubt we are in for very hard times soon.

[orangecrush]

1. The shit is on the wing

In a power dive right into the fan.

We let roughly 38 percent of us do this to us.

[bucolic_frolic]

2. The storage cushion is fudgy.

Saw some stats and generally all countries have drawn down about 25% thus far. Then they said they can't draw all the way to the bottom because the sludge is down there. Sounds like they don't really know what's at the bottom, might depend on how long it's been stored, the year of the first fill. Shouldn't that stock be rotated? Maybe this war is the excuse.

[Emile]

3. President Bone Spurs had a plan to get out of Vietnam.

I guess Iran is different?

[dem4decades]

4. Daddy's not buying his way out of this one.

[cachukis]

5. From another perspective

https://www.nytimes.com/2026/06/04/opinion/strait-of-hormuz-oil-iran-war-energy.html?unlocked_article_code=1.nlA.iUlI.hbj445Fv_z7o&smid=url-share

Markets are dynamic and always respond. First, some oil is already streaming out of the Gulf, either through the trickle of ships that make a run for it, some under U.S. protection, or through pipelines in Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. Those pipes have the capacity to replace as much as a quarter of normal seaborne flows. Somewhat controversially, the Trump administration has also loosened sanctions on Russian oil to ease our own pain, even if oil money helps fund Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Second, the Gulf’s top Asian customers have introduced rationing and other conservation measures. China simply stopped importing for a few weeks. South Korea limited public sector workers to driving on alternate days. The Philippines told government employees to work four days in the office with limits on air-conditioning. Australia has drafted plans for mandatory rationing should the situation deteriorate.

Third, countries are scrambling to rebalance their energy mix. Before the Iran war, some 40 percent of China’s oil imports came from the Gulf. But the country uses oil for only 20 percent of its energy needs and has already begun to get more from Russia, Central Asia and the United States.

[LymphocyteLover]

27. there's definitely been some adaptation... but still a lot has been kept afloat by the reserves that are likely to run

out in the near future

[cachukis]

31. No question. One of my worries is the takeover of

market responsibility having moved to an algorithmic response. It has simply made money for the sake of money. A wilfull blindness.
Visualize, the manager talking to his sales team asking for reports of progress, strategies, and successes and failures of activity during the last six months. The reps ask AI to accumulate the data and they turn that in. The manager gathers this information and asks his AI agent to assemble this in reportable form and submits it to his boss.
That boss is a computer that decides the next step.
We are already here.
Reminds me of Malthus predicting population growth would be subject to food supply.
Reminds me of a conversation I had with my wife's best friend some years ago in Paris, TN.
I asked her why the poorest people in Kentucky continued to vote against Obamacare. They actually received benefits from Kenect (sic) the Kentucky version of Obamacare. She said their pride in overcoming hardship was a motivating factor. They couldn't afford dentists, but the occassional success of brandishing a tattoo, while small, mattered a lot.
Business resilience seems to be holding for now.
Saw through the pandemic where many of the predictions of economic calamity turned out to be underwhelming. The tariffs were supposed to cause much strife, but businesses, having raised their prices during the pandemic without reducing them later, were able to assuage pricing increases to less than what was expected.
At some point, the cavalcade of economic pressures might blow the steamer, but so far the whistles, while disquieting, have kept the engine still running.

[LymphocyteLover]

32. Absolutely. I totally agree on all those points. The stock market is particularly a mess IMO

I'm not sure when things get to a point where things really collapse but neither does our present course seem sustainable

[cachukis]

34. Have invested mostly in real estate over the last

30 years and are now in a small condo for our declining years. Limited exposure.
Have missed out some on the madness of the last few years that might have made us more wealthy, but I have tried to keep an even path. The markets make no sense, but they keep growing. My IRA makes more than my annual withdrawal.
Now I worry about the frenzy for crypto. I have too much cash, idling, but sense once I bite back in, the beautiful souffle will fall.

[Melon]

6. Why would " Diesel goes first"???

We have zero shortage of oil in the US. We are exporting now more than we ever have including refined products.
I wish I could post graphs as pictures and you can see not only the softening of global oil futures but immediately available oil. The global supply chain is adjusting. The reserves are buffering but there are still many months of reserves left. China has reserves to last all of 2026.

Consumption has decreased but also literally everyone is increasing oil production. The US, Canada, smaller producers like Guyana. Venezuela was producing 800,000 barrels a day when the US took over to now 1.2M barrels a days in only months and going up.

What I see now in a global chemical basis is that pricing spiked the last 90 days and is now quickly falling. Major solvents are down 30% in Europe and US pricing is falling.

The global economy is not running hard enough to support the elevated pricing. Supply chains are quickly adjusting and now supply demand are taking over. If the war continues for another 6 months all bets are off for oil, but on a near term basis, the world is supplied and energy prices are softening.

[SamuelTheThird]

11. 800,000 to 1.2 million

I think there is a word for that. It's pittance

[Melon]

41. It's one country. Multiply across all oil producing

Countries with the ability to produce oil.
Look at UAE dropping out of OPEC.
Look at Brent Physical Delivery vs Brent Futures. The lines have converged and are stable. Oil is available for a price. There is no “200!” Oil now or in the near term.

[LymphocyteLover]

28. Yes, but the key is how long the strait stays closed and how quickly the reserves run out

the markets seem to be betting on the straits opening soon and I personally don't see how that is. I think the market is just wish-casting competence on this insane administration.

[JT45242]

30. Diesel is often made from mideastern crude while gasoline is made from US crude

That is a big driver of this problem.

Plus as the supply of the precursor crude is chiked off it becomes more difficult to catch up because yo uneed diesel to move the stuff that you use to make diesel and then to move the final product again.

It is one of the reasons why the Alaskan pipeline was so critical to the US economy, it made a cheap efficient way to move large amounts of crude oil without using diesel to do it.

[GreatGazoo]

7. Completely wrong.

It's fun to think everything is the end of civilization but it is no way to do financial planning.

Fear mongering gets clicks but "98%" has no numbers for their hysteria. Here is what they leave out:

- China is the biggest customer for Iranian oil. China cut oil use by 9% in the first two weeks of the war. Meanwhile Iran tripled the amount of oil that is shipped by rail to China.

- China has over 1-billion barrels of oil in reserves

- the Strait is not closed. It isn't wide open but it isn't closed therefore this statement is a fear mongering lie: "For three months, a fifth of the world's oil has been cut off"

- Oil supply increases as the price goes up. Venezuela and Saudi Arabia have increased output.

- Exxon is so worried that oil price will continue to fall that they are pushing a narrative about "Dry on the 4th of July". It rhymes so it sounds true. It isn't.

The truth: Oil futures decline steadily each month. Oil gets cheaper every month. You can buy at under $80 a barrel right now if you are taking delivery in December.

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/06/03/the-three-reasons-why-oil-is-staying-below-100-a-barrel.html

[SamuelTheThird]

10. lol@your link

One: Real optimism that the Iran conflict/war is soon settled.

lol ain't happening. So 'your' number one reason is fantasy hopium

[GreatGazoo]

15. You ignored all the numbers to nitpick about semantics

and present no facts of your own.

Does China have 1 billion barrels in reserves? Yes
Is oil for December $80 Yes
Is Samuel wrong on this whole matter? Fortunately, yes

the number of freight trains transporting oil and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) towards China has tripled nearly 50 days after Washington initiated a maritime blockade on April 13.

https://www.moneycontrol.com/world/iran-bypasses-us-blockade-with-rail-oil-exports-to-china-pakistan-freight-traffic-surges-article-13936437.html

Reality:

Crude Oil WTI (Jul '26) 92.42
Crude Oil WTI (Aug '26) 89.62
Crude Oil WTI (Sep '26) 86.72
Crude Oil WTI (Oct '26) 84.13
Crude Oil WTI (Nov '26) 81.97
Crude Oil WTI (Dec '26) 80.33

https://www.barchart.com/futures/quotes/CLZ26

[SamuelTheThird]

19. Are America's strategic reserves at a 40 year low right before the summer season?

Yes

And that wasn't 'semantics'. It's literally trading going on based on the fantasy that the war is ending soon.

What demonstrates the irrationality of all of it is oil dropping whenever Trump sends out a tweet saying a peace deal is near. That can only go on for so long..

Apparently you missed the rationing going on in SE Asia, and Australia planning for rationing. That isn't due to an overabundance of cheap oil.

[GreatGazoo]

36. Traders in Singapore, Beijing and Mumbai aren't duped by whatever Trump says

Yes the war isn't over but there is acceptance of the new normal and a kind of stalemate. That does not involve secrets or fantasies. Oil is priced where it is because professional traders and markets have priced in the impact of lower reserves, transport, sanctions, war, blockades, blockades of blockades, etc.

Australia has a plan to ration gasoline in a worst case scenario. Most countries do. Australia has large domestic supply of oil and LNG. And they have made a deal with China to buy jet fuel:
https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Australia-Turns-to-China-for-Emergency-Jet-Fuel-Supplies.html

Sri Lanka and Myanmar may be rationing right now. Hard to tell since all the stories about rationing are from April or March but I would expect new stories if the situation was getting worse. It isn't.

The USA, KSA, Norway, Brazil, Russia and Canada are all selling more oil than usual right now. South Korea, like China, is selling jet fuel to other countries:
https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/South-Korea-Boosts-Jet-Fuel-Exports-to-Nine-Month-High.html

[modrepub]

39. Futures Are Not Delivery

It’s a contract to take delivery. And futures price will always migrate to the delivery price as the contract date approaches the current date.

A futures contract is just an agreement to pay a certain price on a specific date. So if someone decides to bet oil will be $80 a barrel in September and one other person thinks it will be $150 on September they’ll lock in at $80 figuring the price is going higher and they’ll still make money locking in a contract to buy at $80. If spot in September is $150 then great, they still get $150 even if they locked in at $80. If you took a contract at a price closer to $150 then if spot doesn’t go as high for whatever reason you won’t make as much money or your contract will expire worthless if the spot price doesn’t reach that level.

Bottom line, using futures price contracts probably isn’t a good predictor of actual future prices. You don’t have to have the future spot price to match yours, you just have to correctly guess the direction the price will move in the future.

[GreatGazoo]

42. "futures price contracts probably isn't a good predictor of actual future prices" -- meaning spot prices, yes

But if the buyer is taking delivery in Cushing in September then the price of that contract today is the price. If I buy December delivery at $80 then they are obligated to deliver X amount of WTI to my trucks, railcars or pipeline in Cushing Oklahoma in December and I pay $80 even if spot goes to $200.

If I am just an investor then yes I have to resell that futures contract prior to the expiry date. I think we are focused on two different things -- futures as an investment vs futures as a way that major users of oil control and determine their future expenses.

I think we agree on all of that (?) but backwardation means the all of the global participants in the oil markets, both buyers and sellers collectively, are predicting that the supply vs demand in December will produce a lower price than supply vs demand right now.

Front month spiked but the December end didn't move much:

Since war broke out between the U.S., Israel and Iran on February 28, the crude oil futures curve has moved into a steep backwardation, a situation that persists even after the announcement of a temporary ceasefire on April 7. Prices for WTI crude oil futures delivered in December 2026 have been as much as $40 below prices for delivery in May or June (Figure 1). This suggests that traders expect the current supply disruptions caused by the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz will most likely prove to be short-lived, with spot prices perhaps falling to the mid-$70s by year end. But what does the historically extreme backwardation imply for investors?

https://www.cmegroup.com/insights/economic-research/2026/implications-of-wti-oil-futures-in-backwardation-amid-the-supply-crunch.html

[modrepub]

43. Future Prices Are Not Necessarily

Reflective of actual prices in the future.

In January of 2026, West Texas Intermediate March 2026 contract prices ranged between $55 and $63. Actual March 2026 WTI price was $93.

This administration has insisted that oil will fall back to prewar prices. At the moment, the market seems to be buying that argument. I’ll argue this administration is completely ignorant of how the energy market works and unfortunately it seems there are a lot of other folks in the market who don’t understand either.

[GreatGazoo]

44. No. For anyone holding a March contract at $63 their price in March was $63

That is the whole point of futures. Risk reduction. They risk paying more than spot if prices go lower but that is offset by insuring they will not pay more if the price goes higher.

"the market seems to be buying" the admin's BS. No they aren't. The backwardation of futures prices is the result of a super complicated ethereal equation that factors and weights all the ways things could get worse against all the ways they could get better or stay the same. Oil went to $120 on uncertainty but declined as more information became available and events played out.

Turns out that even though "20% of oil flows through the Strait" there are other ways it can flow and other sources that can replace what is suppressed. Canada, Russia, Brazil and KSA are not constrained by whatever happens in the Strait and they all started pumping more and shipping via routes that don't involve the Strait. In the 1973 embargo 7% of oil was cut off and prices spiked, rationing went into effect, we all parked the Camaro and bought Hondas, etc. What is different now is that there is far more capacity to pump oil and very little of that capacity is constrained by the Strait. IOW 20% of flow is/was not 20% of oil production capacity. Prices went high enough to make other sources and routes profitable.

There is a scenario where oil prices crater (again, like April 2020) when the Strait is fully open because all this other capacity and production has ramped up.

Oil trading is overwhelming conducted by people who DO understand these things and have much better info than what is available to retail traders. Prices are declining because traders are seeing all the ways that production and transport is reacting to and overcoming the throttling of the Strait. Not because of anything Trump says or does not understand.

[Cheezoholic]

21. Appreciate your insight as I'm an admitted economic idiot. I can see where Exxon would be trying to "warn"

about oil blowing back through 100 with no end in sight for the reasons you mention but also from a PR standpoint of diverting blame for any future high gas prices away from big oil in case the prices continue to stay elevated. I think part of their thinking is they see a change coming in US politics to a party that's not afraid to slap them (whether they deserve it or not, easy target). Regardless, futures trading carries more risk as its basically shorting the market if I understand it correctly. I know there are very smart people with very good tools and insight playing the game but the risk is still there. IMO it's hard to say where we're at worldwide on our reserves. It's going to affect different countries good or bad which down the line could affect our economy via the supply chain. Oil is so intertwined in our lives. I don't think most people understand just how big of oil junkies we are. (It's worse than Billy Bob quips on his TV show lol). Thanx

[GreatGazoo]

22. Futures lock in a price right now

All of the large companies which use lots of gasoline, diesel and jet fuel, have traders on staff who buy and trade oil futures.

In a sense it is the oil companies who are selling short. eg they are selling December's oil right now so even if the price goes way up they are locked in and must deliver at $80. That is why UPS, AA, Pepsi, Amazon, etc. buy futures -- it lets them know what their costs are going to be. The airlines are a big one. You can buy a ticket right now for Thanksgiving travel so the airline needs to know what they will pay for fuel in November ($82) so that they can price their tickets.

Those stair step declines of about $2 per month in futures prices mean that in general the market sees more alternatives to Hormuz oil becoming available the further into the future you look. Part of that is that they know which pipelines can move oil to other delivery points such as the Red Sea and how much can be moved by rail. In general there has been an oversupply of oil ever since covid which drove prices down last year to about $57. They can't make money unless oil is above $60 so they usually start a war or sanctions or do whatever every time the price of oil goes below $60. Sure enough last year they attacked Iran and snatched Maduro. That pushed prices up not much until Feb 28. Now they have halted sanctions on Russian oil to increase supply to compensate for the Hormuz situation and keep oil under $100. Ideally they want oil between $65 and $80. Once it goes above $80 countries start replacing it with coal, solar, nuke, mass transit, work from home, etc. That can destroy demand in the long term so they don't want oil to stay high. It is big ugly game.

[SamuelTheThird]

35. Admittedly, Im no expert or even amateur...but

' Ideally they want oil between $65 and $80. Once it goes above $80 countries start replacing it with coal, solar, nuke, mass transit, work from home, etc.'

If that's the case what possible advantage is it for the Exxon guy to lie (which is your claim, he's lying) and say it's going to 140 or 160? That would just kickstart alternatives right now to a greater degree.

[GreatGazoo]

37. Since oil is sold as futures there is more profit when buyers panic about the future

It's like if someone was selling fire insurance and we are in a wicked drought. And they run around saying 'Wow our experts say this drought is going to last another year so you should buy at these high rates now before we have to raise rates even higher.' They are trying to rush more people to pay the high rate before it rains.

If the USA accepts the $1 per barrel deal that Iran wants on the Strait then oil goes back down to like $70. Exxon wants to sell as much as they can as high as they can before any bigger deal is confirmed and prices drop further. Some predict a glut about two weeks after a deal that holds.

Toward the bottom of linked:

If a peace deal is signed that appears likely to hold, then two-to-four weeks looks like a sensible starting point for clearing the Gulf backlog and restoring shipping patterns, with flows possibly ramping back towards full levels after another two-to-four weeks, according to Houston-based Vikas Dwivedi, global energy strategist at Macquarie Group.

In this base-case scenario, in which the market believes a deal is real and has staying power, the sell-off would be immediate and large, approximately US$20 in one week. This would be followed by a two-week consolidation period, and then a period in which logistical and financial issues are repriced. “After this, we expect the market to end up with far too much oil again as mitigation sources of supply continue as Hormuz flow ramps up, creating a physically driven overshoot to the downside,” underlines Dwivedi. “Finally, prices trend toward a normalisation of crude supply and demand and a return to what we believe is the fair value range of US$65 to US$70 per barrel,” he concludes.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/inside-the-iran-deal-that-may-change-nothing-but-could-smash-oil-prices-anyway/ar-AA24yGAr

[SamuelTheThird]

38. All hinging on a deal that isn't going to happen

What then?

[LymphocyteLover]

33. Last week Exxon Mobil warned that oil inventories will fall to record low levels in coming weeks

forcing prices to spike and curbing demand.

“We’re approaching unheard of inventory levels,” said Exxon Senior Vice President Neil Chapman at a conference hosted by Bernstein in New York.

“I mean really, really low levels,” Chapman warned. “You can debate whether that’s going to hit, those really low levels, in two weeks or three weeks. Once you get to that point, then you’ll see price shoot up.”

The price of physical Brent oil cargoes will spike to $150 to $160 per barrel when inventories hit all-time lows in coming weeks, the executive said. “When the price gets to a certain level, demand destruction brings it back into balance,” he said."

Oil industry executives have warned for two months that the crude futures market is not reflecting the scale of the disruption triggered by the war in the Middle East.

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/28/oil-inventory-exxon-strait-hormuz-iran-war.html

[WSHazel]

8. Demand destruction

There is significant demand destruction that kicks in at $100/barrel, and it will go up as the price of oil goes up. A lot of that demand destruction will never return. This is why the Gulf States are working so hard to end run the Strait, and why the UAE dropped out of OPEC. The other side of this crisis is going to be over-supply.

I believe one of the key reasons that Trump started this conflict was to increase energy prices which would help U.S. producers and improve the trade deficit since the U.S. is a net exporter. It is a phenomenally stupid strategy, because the back end of this is lower oil prices than pre-conflict, which will crush U.S. producers who have some of the highest production costs in the world, but Trump doesn't care about the long or even intermediate term.

[LymphocyteLover]

25. "one of the key reasons that Trump started this conflict was to increase energy prices"-- agree

which is just profoundly stupid... but what else do we expect from this guy?

[2naSalit]

9. And it's all part of the plan...

To cripple the US for certain enemies but also fucking the world because a certain orange asshole is not loved by everybody and the E[stein files are leaking out.

[Kid Berwyn]

12. Excellent summation.

No gas…No chow…No civilization.

Billionaires have their redoubts to weather the Trouble.

The rest of us, not so much as a gig-eat-dog scenario.

Thanks, Putin.

[ToxMarz]

13. I don't think the Strait of Hormuz never reopening is going to happen, but it will not reopen without a major shock

and that major shock I think is not too far off. Trump will never solve this until he is either forced to or taken out of the equation. Neither will happen until the situation becomes untenable.

Exxon sounds alarm on ‘unheard of’ oil problem
A top Exxon executive says the market is only weeks away from a level the industry almost never sees.
May 31, 2026 8:07 PM EDT

https://www.thestreet.com/investing/exxon-sounds-alarm-on-unheard-of-oil-problem

Markets have a strange way of staying calm right up until the moment they can no longer. Traders can watch the same warning lights blink for weeks, shrug, and keep pricing the world as if nothing has really changed. That has been the mood around oil for most of 2026.

The Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway that normally carries about a fifth of the world’s crude, has been throttled since late February. Tankers cross only when Iran allows them to. And still, oil futures spent much of the spring drifting lower instead of higher, as traders bet on a ceasefire that keeps getting promised and never quite arrives.

Pump prices have climbed, but the futures market has acted as if the supply shock is mostly in the rearview mirror. For months, government stockpiles and emergency reserve releases have quietly papered over just how tight the physical market has become.

Then a senior executive at one of the biggest oil companies on the planet stepped up to a microphone in New York and said the quiet part out loud.

[LymphocyteLover]

24. Agree. Thanks for the link.

[dalton99a]

14. Kick

https://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1002&pid=21281177

[kairos12]

16. MAGA does the full collapse

when long gas lines start.

[GreenWave]

17. First the bastids want to grift off it, if they can.

[AverageOldGuy]

18. But I thouight it would be open in two weeks.

Or was that six weeks ago?

[Blue Full Moon]

20. That's the point.

This was reported before the election. They think that the crypto currency will keep their wealth while they eliminate everyone else's. They want to force everyone to use the crypto scam. Not protected. But allows them to buy with no receipts things like children and bribes.

[LymphocyteLover]

23. Unbelievably awful

so many horrible people with too much money

[marble falls]

26. It's happening now as we speak.

[WSHazel]

40. Remember that the UAE left OPEC a few weeks ago

The UAE didn't want to be restricted by production quotas that Iran and Iraq were not going to abide by anyway.

The long-term horizon for oil is glut. There is long term demand destruction, and significant additional demand destruction as oil crosses $100/barrel. Trump is trying to create an artificial shortage by blockading the Strait, but the producers are finding a way around it and people are consuming less. The catastrophizing about the Strait is being driven by the White House to manipulate oil prices.

If Trump ordered the U.S. military to also blockade the Red Sea, which is not out of the question, then it would be time to panic. I also wouldn't put it past him to "accidentally" blow up Saudi shipping logistics.

Our President appears to be using our military to try to manufacture an artificial energy crisis for his own political and financial benefit. Let that sink in for a while.