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RandySF

(87,958 posts) Sat Jun 27, 2026, 07:16 PM 4 hrs ago

IA-SEN: Hinson leads Turek by 2% in Republican poll.

Link to tweet

?s=20

Polling USA
@USA_Polling
Iowa - Senate Polling:

🔴 Hinson: 46%
🔵 Turek: 44%

Cygnal / June 19, 2026

(Republican Pollster)

3 replies

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IA-SEN: Hinson leads Turek by 2% in Republican poll. (Original Post) RandySF 4 hrs ago OP

Since it is a GOP poll, IDK what this means. mr715 3 hrs ago #1

To me it means Hinson is in trouble RandySF 3 hrs ago #2

Yeah but insider polls manipulate results. mr715 3 hrs ago #3

mr715

(4,878 posts)

1. Since it is a GOP poll, IDK what this means.

Reply to RandySF (Original post)

Sat Jun 27, 2026, 07:38 PM

3 hrs ago

But it is within the margin of error so it is a tie.

In Iowa, that is extraordinarily bad news for national republicans. If this poll is reliable, I think we'll comfortably win the Senate. 51+1?

RandySF

(87,958 posts)

2. To me it means Hinson is in trouble

Reply to mr715 (Reply #1)

Sat Jun 27, 2026, 07:42 PM

3 hrs ago

if a 2% lead is the best they can come.

mr715

(4,878 posts)

3. Yeah but insider polls manipulate results.

Reply to RandySF (Reply #2)

Sat Jun 27, 2026, 07:46 PM

3 hrs ago

They might show it as close or tied so Hinson can fundraise and have that on-so-popular desperation pitch.

It certainly suggests Hinson is vulnerable. But again, the 2% lead isn't really a lead. It is a difference in % explainable by chance in the polling population.

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