The economic chilling effect of Trump's immigration crackdown

[riversedge]

Source: npr


May 12, 20266:30 AM ET Greg Rosalsky


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Well, we now have data from last year's immigration crackdown. East and a co-author, Elizabeth Cox, recently released a new working paper, "Labor Market Impacts of ICE Activity in Trump 2.0," which analyzes how Trump's beefed up immigration enforcement affected employment, both for immigrants and workers born in the United States. So, did the immigration crackdown help the job prospects of U.S.-born workers? East says no.

" The mass deportations in Trump 2.0 are not helping the labor market overall and not creating more job opportunities for U.S.-born workers," East says. In fact, she and her co-author find evidence that, if anything, the clampdown has hurt the employment prospects of U.S.-born workers, particularly working-class men who work in industries that are heavily reliant on undocumented workers, like construction.

It's more evidence that the labor market isn't really a zero-sum contest, where immigrants and native workers battle over a fixed number of jobs in a kind of labor market Hunger Games, and the newcomers take the jobs of or undercut the people already here. Instead, it adds to a large and growing body of evidence that, actually, immigration helps grow core industries and the overall economy, which creates jobs and has other benefits for native workers. Less of a Hunger Games, and more like… what's the opposite of a Hunger Games… a potluck?

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There's a classic argument against immigration: that immigrants take jobs from U.S.-born workers or drive down wages. But this study — like many before it — suggests the labor market isn't that simple. It suggests that immigrants and native-born workers often don't compete against each other for the exact same jobs.................






Read more: https://www.npr.org/sections/planet-money/2026/05/12/g-s1-121493/the-economic-chilling-effect-of-trumps-immigration-crackdown?utm_source=firefox-newtab-en-us

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Lots of details in this study if you read it.

" The mass deportations in Trump 2.0 are not helping the labor market overall and not creating more job opportunities for U.S.-born workers," East says.

The economic chilling effect of Trump's immigration crackdown
May 12, 20266:30 AM ET
www.npr.org/sections/pla...

— (@oceancalm.bsky.social) 2026-05-12T18:39:22.451Z

Greg Rosalsky, photographed for NPR, 2 August 2022, in New York, NY. Photo by Mamadi Doumbouya for NPR.

[Dr. T]

1. I've suspected these results ever since Dimwitted Donnie

went on his short-sighted immigrant rampage. Most of the people who built my condo were immigrants. The rough carpenters, drywallers, roofers and others were definitely immigrants doing the hard work that most Americans steer clear of.

Just like Melania.

[catrose]

2. True. Not many Americans want to harvest produce and similar

[RoseTrellis]

3. That's because

That’s because the farms can get away with paying immigrants very little, because they are desperate for a job to get established. I’m not in favor of taking advantage of workers like this.
The end result should be the farms pay the workers fair market value for their labor.

[TexasBushwhacker]

5. It's not just about money

Most American citizens don't want to do SEASONAL work. They want to live in one place. They want to have families and put their kids in school.

They want ONE JOB. They don't want to make a living, cobbling together several part time or seasonal jobs to make a living.. They want benefits like health insurance. They want SECURITY.

[OldBaldy1701E]

6. Yep.

Shame that most of us don't get those things, and the ever growing numbers that never will be able to.

But, we seem to like it that way, since we won't do anything to change it, so...

[RoseTrellis]

7. But some still has to do the work

Seasonal jobs are perfect for high schoolers and college students. It’s entry level employment, and not really optimal to make a career out of.
I agree that if you looking for permanent employment, it’s probably not the best for someone seeking long term employment.
Back when I was a kid, I picked blueberries after school and on weekends for spending cash. My hometown was very rural, and didn’t offer many opportunity for work.
Regardless, my point is the response to the statement that Americans don’t want to do this work.
The farmers HAVE to get the crops to market. If they can underpay immigrants to accomplish this they will.
However, if they are forced to raise the wages because of a lack of workers, that’s a good thing, right?

[drmeow]

8. But, but, but

paying people, especially farm workers, a decent wage will raise the cost of food (because reducing obscene corporate, including corporate farm, profits is a no-no) and if we do that how can all the other people corporate America barely pays a living wage to survive?

[RoseTrellis]

9. Dirty secret

You touched on something here that no one wants to publicly admit.
Many people are perfectly fine with exploiting immigrant labor to justify low produce prices.
Imagine the outrage if berries, lettuce, and other manually picked crops prices increased to cover a living wage to the people who’s manual labor the process relies on?

[TexasBushwhacker]

10. "Back when I was a kid"

I'm 69. Back when I was a kid, I babysat for $1 an hour per kid. I got a job at Dairy Queen when I was 16 for minimum wage, $1.50 an hour. I put my tiny paychecks in my passbook savings account. Now, many students don't work in fast food because of the hours required. The breakfast shift starts at 5 am and the dinner shift works til 10 pm IF the place isn't open 24 hours.

In rural areas, young people may still harvest crops for "pocket money", but are there enough of those high school and college students NOW to harvest ALL the crops in the area at peak freshness before they rot? Can they work sunup to sundown? Have you watched "Nomadland"? They showed how many migrant SENIOR CITIZENS are working at seasonal harvests, under miserable, dangerous conditions. Others work seasonal jobs at Amazon warehouses, standing and walking on concrete warehouse floors 8 or more hours a day.

This isn't just an issue in the U.S. In Europe they often depend on the migrant Roma (gypsy) workers. Forcing farmers to pay more isn't necessarily going to solve the problem, because they would have to pass their increased costs onto their buyers and on down the line, from grocery stores to restaurants. Since farm workers have EAT, raising their pay while raising the cost of groceries is kind of a zero sum game, at best. At some point, whether it's students or immigrants (legal or undocumented) workers just decide it's not worth it.

[Old Crank]

4. Gee! What a surprise!

Take workers away and it hurts the economy, even for those not directly affected.
Every paid worker adds more to the economy than just his take home money. It gets spent and that gets spent again and again.