Here's Why Weather Forecasts Have Seemed So Inaccurate Lately

[douglas9]

Is there anything more annoying than leaving the house in shorts and flip flops, only to get caught in an unexpected downpour? The weather report is rarely spot-on, but if forecasts have seemed particularly inaccurate recently, it’s because they have been.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) was among several agencies gutted by the Trump Administration’s Department of Government Efficiency in 2025. That February, the U.S. Office of Personnel Management abruptly fired 880 NOAA employees. Two months later, NOAA approved over 1,000 deferred resignations or buyouts. These sweeping staff cuts forced the National Weather Service (NWS), the forecasting arm of NOAA, to halt or reduce weather balloon launches at 11 locations.

“We’re going to lose data because of this staffing,” Michael Morgan, an atmospheric scientist at the University of Wisconsin-Madison and former NOAA administrator, said at the time. “And that loss of data then translates into less precise forecasts, more uncertainties in the forecast.”

Before the cuts, the NWS was launching weather balloons twice per day (once in the morning and once in the evening) from 100 locations. Today, the number of morning launches in the Lower 48 has been reduced by half, according to MyRadar senior meteorologist Matthew Cappucci.



https://gizmodo.com/heres-why-weather-forecasts-have-seemed-so-inaccurate-lately-2000779436

[luv2fly]

1. Anything more annoying than leaving the house in shorts and flip-flops and getting caught in the rain?

I can name about a hundred things more annoying.

If getting caught in the rain is someone's biggest annoyance, they lead a pretty blessed life.

[Redleg]

2. Leaving the house in flip-flops is bad enough

Just a little peeve of mine. I never felt really clothed wearing flip-flops. I think they are fine for wearing at the pool or at the gym shower. To each his/her own.

I should add that I am not a fan of any open toed slip on shoes. I get behind students wearing these and they can't seem to walk at a reasonable pace. Plus, dudes, if you have ugly fucking feet, wear a regular shoe.

[chia]

22. You must not live in California.

[Redleg]

34. I do not

I do live in a hot and humid place though and wish I did live in a more dry heat like where I grew up in Utah.

[MiHale]

3. That is the part of the article you choose to comment upon?...

Okay Doaky .

[luv2fly]

6. Indeed it is, thanks for noticing

I could bitch and moan about how Trump has destroyed weather forecasting too, but there's enough bitching about Trump to last a lifetime.

[MiHale]

7. Got cha...👍

[RB77]

17. I'm not partial to flip flops

Also, I have “ugly fucking feet”. 🤓

[MiHale]

30. Never wore ff's..never will...

Think you meant to comment to someone else, happens all the time.

[yourmovemonkey]

9. Farmers depend on accuracy.

[MiHale]

31. Yes, I know I live in farmland...

I also need a more accurate forecast though…not a farm but a rather large garden that keeps us in food for a pretty long time and plenty to share in the neighborhood.

Think you meant to comment to someone else…happens a lot.

[progree]

4. It matters to me a lot. I don't have a car so I walk about an hour to the grocery store, and part-way home

carrying a week's worth of groceries. (I take a bus home, but still it's 2/3 of a mile walk from the bus stop to home, which is quite a lot carrying $150 worth of groceries. It's about a 3.5 hour round trip including a bit over an hour at the grocery store.

So it is crucial to find a 4 hour window where I can be almost assured I won't get rained on. Yes, I do carry a poncho and wear a ball cap to keep it out of my eyes just in case. But having the groceries rained on, or being in the rain for an hour is something i want to avoid. Even with the poncho, I'd still be soaking wet from the knees on down while grocery shopping.

I have been thinking that in the last several months or more, the forecast for a given day (next day or day after) has been changing quite a lot from forecast to forecast. Now I know it wasn't my imagination or projecting from what I read about NOAA / NWS cuts back in the DOGE days.

[Bluestocking]

5. I have noticed this recently

Figured it was trumps fault but now I have verification. Thanks for the confirmation

[underpants]

24. My wife and I use different apps and get different forecasts

I use The Weather Channel. She uses the Weather app that comes on Apple phones. Not hugely different but different.

A coworker told me that she and her spouse do the same.

[progree]

8. "I'm not able to predict severe weather with the confidence I normally would. That is extremely concerning."

Excerpt from the article. And concerns about predicting tornados. So it's a bigger issue than getting caught in the rain in flip flops.

[Racygrandma]

10. Living in tornado alley this can be a big deal

Just a few weeks ago an f2 tornado hit a house north of town like at 2 am, killed the guy. No warning at all. Check out the story I am in Wichita

[ColoringFool]

15. Tornadoes are a bad example, being unpredictable.....

Why Tornadoes Are Still Hard To Forecast – Even Though Storm Predictions Are Improving – Texas A&M Stories https://share.google/AjIlSpBk9ufJ4OCtf

[Racygrandma]

16. Yes, it was 2 am

And very short lived. Night tornadoes are dangerous, you can’t see them.

[dlk]

11. Republican governance is dysfunctional by design

I’ve always found it ironic republicans consistently beat the drum that government is the problem. Yet they are so eager to keep their government jobs and line their pockets.

[AZLD4Candidate]

12. GOP Mantra - Government is broken. Elect me and I''ll break it more to prove my point

[dlk]

14. Exactly

They count on zealots and low information voters.

[ColoringFool]

13. I haven't noticed. Has this alleged inaccuracy been a major problem?....

Seems to me in my 76 years people have griped about the weather and weather forecasts in about equal proportion.

I'm betting the predictions are all spot-on for the excessive heat in the East.

[Intractable]

18. 'leaving the house in shorts and flip flops, only to get caught in an unexpected downpour'

It's a way of life here in southern Florida.

It goes the other way too, with events cancelled due to forecasts of rain that never come to be.

[Historic NY]

19. Every day it says rain that never comes.

[underpants]

27. Everybody talks about the weather but no ones does anything about it

Well except for Trump who is basically ignoring it.

[littlemissmartypants]

20. Social Murder:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Social_murder

Social murder (translated from the German term sozialer Mord) is a concept used to describe unnatural or premature deaths that occurs due to preventable problems in social, political, or economic systems, rather than the direct violence often associated with murder. The term originally specifically described deaths due to problems stemming from working conditions under capitalism, the term has since expanded to include preventable deaths due to systemic issues other than ones believed to be inherent under capitalism.

The origin of the term social murder is credited to German philosopher Friedrich Engels, who coined the term in 1845 to describe premature, preventable deaths among the English working class. Social murder has since been used by left-wing politicians, journalists, and activists to describe deaths attributed to larger social forces. The term has particularly re-emerged as a popular term in the 21st century, having been used by commentators to describe events such as the Grenfell tower fire, the 2024 Spanish floods, and deaths from UnitedHealth Group's insurance policies.

AKA SLS:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shit_life_syndrome

Shit life syndrome (SLS) is a phrase used by physicians in the United Kingdom, the United States, and Australia for the effect that a variety of poverty or abuse-induced disorders can have on patients.

[underpants]

25. Good info thanks.

[yellow dahlia]

33. Social murder - glad to learn a new term.

Albeit a sad reality.

[usaf-vet]

21. The republicans want TO PRIVTIZE weather gathering and reporting. It is part of their long-range plans to.....

..... PRIVATIZE all government services. All of which leads to worse services and, in many cases, leads to earlier deaths. Which, in the mind of this 79-year-old, is directly connected to wanting to kill off as many as they can BEFORE they can collect the Social Security they are owed. As the likes of the current POTUS, the desire to privatize Social Security. And grab the cash! Four generations of this family have served in the military to protect the Constitution against ALL enemies, foreign and DOMESTIC!

[underpants]

26. Sen. Santorum tried to privatize weather in 2005 to Accu Weather

Who just happened to be donors to his PAC.


Santorum's weather crusade
https://www.politico.com/story/2012/01/7-year-old-attack-on-weather-service-could-cloud-santorums-campaign-071129


Former Senator Rick Santorum's "private weather" controversy refers to his sponsorship of the National Weather Service Duties Act of 2005 (S. 786). The bill sought to stop the National Weather Service (NWS) from competing with commercial weather companies—such as Pennsylvania-based AccuWeather—by prohibiting the free, public dissemination of government weather forecasts.The legislation sparked major backlash and ultimately died in committee due to the following dynamics:

Commercial Ties: Critics alleged political impropriety because executives from AccuWeather were notable campaign contributors to Santorum's political action committee.

Public Outcry: The public and aviation groups strongly opposed the bill. It was widely criticized as an attempt to lock taxpayer-funded, life-saving weather data behind corporate paywalls.

Hurricane Katrina: Santorum doubled down on his stance shortly after the bill stalled. He publicly criticized the NWS for what he deemed to be "insufficient" evacuation warnings ahead of Hurricane Katrina, drawing further national criticism.

[surfered]

23. While weather events are becoming more extreme due to climate change, which Trump says is a Chinese hoax.

[JillyUpstateNY]

28. Surgery canceled due to global warming

Today, I was scheduled for an outpatient procedure to check out a small spot inside an organ and remove it so they can see what it is. I had to come at 6 AM and the surgery was supposed to be at seven. I was all hooked up when medical personnel started coming in the room and telling me there was a delay because the operating room was too hot and humid, and that would pose a risk of infection. It was supposed to take 20 minutes to fix, and then it was half an hour and then almost 2 hours when they finally decided to cancel all surgeries. Every one of the staff, including my doctor, agreed that climate denial is ridiculous.Tomorrow is supposed to be worse. Around 100, but at least I got a complimentary cup of coffee from the café and an assurance that I probably wouldn’t have to pay for this morning. The procedure will be rescheduled soon. But it’s only the beginning of July!

[Historic NY]

29. Well at least I'm not the only one, the forcasts are either at minute or not ar all

Thanks to Trump and Doge. I've been relying on a TV forecaster

https://climate.law.columbia.edu/content/trump-proposes-17-billion-cut-noaa]


https://www.americanprogress.org/article/how-trumps-cuts-to-fema-and-nws-are-leaving-communities-defenseless-against-extreme-weather-disasters/]

[malaise]

32. K & R

Very important