Skepticism, Science & Pseudoscience

CloudWatcher

(2,005 posts) Thu Jul 5, 2018, 01:44 PM Jul 2018

Dissolving the Fermi Paradox [View all]

The Future of Humanity Institute (Oxford University) has taken a fresh look at the Drake equation and concluded that we are likely alone in the galaxy and in the observable universe, dissolving the Fermi paradox.

FHI: Dissolving the Fermi Paradox

Our main result is to show that proper treatment of scientific uncertainties dissolves the Fermi paradox by showing that it is not at all unlikely ex ante for us to be alone in the Milky Way, or in the observable universe. Our second result is to show that, taking account of observational bounds on the prevalence of other civilizations, our updated probabilities suggest that there is a substantial probability that we are alone. Our third result is that pessimism for the survival of humanity based on the Fermi paradox is unfounded.

Vox: Why haven’t we found aliens yet?

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Dissolving the Fermi Paradox [View all] CloudWatcher Jul 2018 OP

Don't believe this for a sec...where's the evidence that there isn't life elsewhere? SWBTATTReg Jul 2018 #1

You have to look at this the mathematical way: DetlefK Aug 2018 #5

with only one sample... uriel1972 Aug 2018 #6

Not with frequentist probabilities. But with bayesian probabilities. DetlefK Aug 2018 #8

there are limits qazplm135 Jan 2019 #13

We cannot get the exact number, but we can estimate it. DetlefK Jan 2019 #15

That's the point qazplm135 Jan 2019 #16

How do we know we haven't already encountered alien life? cyclonefence Jul 2018 #2

We are no longer bound by our mere senses... uriel1972 Aug 2018 #7

My son the astronomer recently told me that PoindexterOglethorpe Jul 2018 #3

certainly possible qazplm135 Jan 2019 #14

We always assume that intelligence is a forgone conclusion in evolution NickB79 Aug 2018 #4

The assumption of advancement is a regrettable... uriel1972 Sep 2018 #11

I think we must always differentiate edhopper Sep 2018 #9

I'm more than happy to allow for the existence... uriel1972 Sep 2018 #10

We know that there are millions of Earth like planets edhopper Sep 2018 #12

The things we debate... it's all good fun... JustFiveMoreMinutes May 2019 #17

Message auto-removed Name removed May 2019 #19

The key here is technological civilization edhopper May 2019 #18

We also have to consider the possibility that: Disaffected Jul 2019 #20